For the owner and investor · a concept, nothing is on sale
What to launch first, and at what volume a series of hundreds of parts pays off
First: “Implant”. 3 molds, 360 UAH of tooling. 9 designs pay off from 424 parts a year, 100 designs from 8,646. Hundreds of parts are not justified today.
To the decision and kill criteriaAssumptions, not data: the Zipf distribution and a 60 UAH profit per part. There is no demand.
Each dot is one part in a year. A design that crosses the line lights up; the rest go dark. The first 14 designs are real prototype parts; after that the drawing repeats, and those designs do not exist.
Tooth T36: University of Dundee School of Dentistry (Sketchfab: DundeeDental), CC BY 4.0, model modified.
Estimate: model, master, mold and shell, trial pours
Catalog, designs
The same calculation as a table
The rarest design must pay for itself within a year. The row lights up when that catalog is selected above.
| Designs | at 500 UAH | at 1,000 UAH | at 2,000 UAH |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 212 | 424 | 849 |
| 12 | 310 | 621 | 1,241 |
| 18 | 524 | 1,049 | 2,097 |
| 30 | 999 | 1,997 | 3,995 |
| 100 | 4,323 | 8,646 | 17,291 |
| 300 | 15,707 | 31,413 | 62,827 |
Assumptions, not data: the Zipf distribution and a 60 UAH profit per part. There is no demand.
How many molds and how much stock
Molds are the sum of variants per tier, combinations their product. Per part: 170 g of silicone, 60 g of PETG, 45 g of PLA and a stock of 2 pieces at 60 UAH: an estimate.
| Variants per tier | Combinations | Molds | Silicone, kg | Molds, UAH | Stock, pcs | Stock, UAH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 27 | 9 | 1.5 | 1,678 | 18 | 1,080 |
| 4 | 64 | 12 | 2.0 | 2,237 | 24 | 1,440 |
| 6 | 216 | 18 | 3.1 | 3,356 | 36 | 2,160 |
| 10 | 1,000 | 30 | 5.1 | 5,594 | 60 | 3,600 |
| 20 | 8,000 | 60 | 10.2 | 11,187 | 120 | 7,200 |
| 33 | 35,937 | 99 | 16.8 | 18,459 | 198 | 11,880 |
| 100 | 1,000,000 | 300 | 51.0 | 55,935 | 600 | 36,000 |
Up to 18 designs (216 combinations), about 350 figures a year is enough. Cast rare parts to order, and release a new tier only on sales data from the first ones.
12 concepts: unit cost against hand time
Vertical: set cost from low to high. Horizontal: hand minutes. Ringed concepts were not built; their masses come from dimensions. Not one minute has been measured. Tap a concept.
Solid dot: a prototype exists. Ring: an estimate from dimensions.
Implantprototype127–271 UAH10.6–20.5 min
- Who it is for and why
- Clinics: a gift to a patient after treatment, to a dentist, at a conference
- In the box
- Bone block, implant with abutment, crown
- What it assembles into
- A jaw section with a tooth on an implant
- Why buy again
- Stock for treatment; other teeth: a new crown on the same base
- Unit cost
- 127 / 152 / 198 / 271 UAH
- Minimum price at 40%
- 316–679 UAH
- Tooling
- 360 UAH
- Molds / parts
- 3 / 3
- Wax
- 167 g
- Sets a day from one mold set
- 6
Halvesprototype105–224 UAH8.4–17 min
- Who it is for and why
- Couples, weddings, anniversaries
- In the box
- Two heart halves, each with its own wick
- What it assembles into
- A whole heart; they fuse while burning only if an experiment confirms it
- Why buy again
- Weak: wedding guests and new couples, not the couple itself
- Unit cost
- 105 / 127 / 165 / 224 UAH
- Minimum price at 40%
- 262–561 UAH
- Tooling
- 257 UAH
- Molds / parts
- 2 / 2
- Wax
- 150 g
- Sets a day from one mold set
- 3
Stone Idols: 1 figureprototype133–279 UAH11.6–21.5 min
- Who it is for and why
- Adult collectors, souvenirs, ethnic decor
- In the box
- Base, torso, head on the S14 standard
- What it assembles into
- A stone idol in parts, 27 combinations in a 3×3 series
- Why buy again
- New tiers for old ones, head refills
- Unit cost
- 133 / 157 / 207 / 279 UAH
- Minimum price at 40%
- 331–697 UAH
- Tooling
- 336 UAH
- Molds / parts
- 3 / 3
- Wax
- 188 g
- Sets a day from one mold set
- 3
Year by Year: starterestimate115–257 UAH11.6–21.5 min
- Who it is for and why
- Couples, families, company anniversaries
- In the box
- Base, a disc with the year, top “flame”
- What it assembles into
- The column grows one disc a year
- Why buy again
- Built in: a new disc every year
- Unit cost
- 115 / 141 / 190 / 257 UAH
- Minimum price at 40%
- 289–643 UAH
- Tooling
- 405 UAH
- Molds / parts
- 3 / 3
- Wax
- 145 g
- Sets a day from one mold set
- 4
Lighthouse with a Replaceable Flameestimate125–272 UAH11.6–21.5 min
- Who it is for and why
- Home, a gift for sailors, Odesa, restaurants
- In the box
- Rock, tower, top with a wick
- What it assembles into
- A lighthouse; only the top burns
- Why buy again
- Top refills
- Unit cost
- 125 / 153 / 202 / 272 UAH
- Minimum price at 40%
- 314–680 UAH
- Tooling
- 476 UAH
- Molds / parts
- 3 / 3
- Wax
- 190 g
- Sets a day from one mold set
- 4
Grain Elevatorestimate204–430 UAH19–35.5 min
- Who it is for and why
- Agri-holdings, elevators, trade shows; no third-party brands
- In the box
- 3 silos, gallery, tray
- What it assembles into
- An elevator model; a silo can be added
- Why buy again
- New branch, new silo
- Unit cost
- 204 / 242 / 324 / 430 UAH
- Minimum price at 40%
- 509–1,075 UAH
- Tooling
- 452 UAH
- Molds / parts
- 3 / 5
- Wax
- 315 g
- Sets a day from one mold set
- 1.3
Team: 12 sectorsestimate296–698 UAH32.6–65.5 min
- Who it is for and why
- Companies: a stamped name sector for each employee
- In the box
- 12 identical sectors and an axis
- What it assembles into
- A logo ring on the boardroom table
- Why buy again
- New people, new year
- Unit cost
- 296 / 356 / 503 / 698 UAH
- Minimum price at 40%
- 740–1,744 UAH
- Tooling
- 268 UAH
- Molds / parts
- 2 / 13
- Wax
- 480 g
- Sets a day from one mold set
- 0.6
Developer’s Towerestimate192–408 UAH18–32.5 min
- Who it is for and why
- Developers: a gift at key handover, a model of their building with their consent
- In the box
- Podium, floors, roof
- What it assembles into
- A building in sections
- Why buy again
- Every new building is a new order
- Unit cost
- 192 / 230 / 306 / 408 UAH
- Minimum price at 40%
- 480–1,020 UAH
- Tooling
- 492 UAH
- Molds / parts
- 3 / 5
- Wax
- 340 g
- Sets a day from one mold set
- 1.3
Mechanismestimate145–319 UAH14.8–27 min
- Who it is for and why
- Plants, IT, engineers
- In the box
- 3 gears (module 4 and up), plate
- What it assembles into
- Gears on axles without rotation, static
- Why buy again
- Company departments; watch for toy indicators
- Unit cost
- 145 / 174 / 237 / 319 UAH
- Minimum price at 40%
- 362–798 UAH
- Tooling
- 510 UAH
- Molds / parts
- 4 / 4
- Wax
- 175 g
- Sets a day from one mold set
- 8
Town: 4 housesestimate166–362 UAH14.8–30 min
- Who it is for and why
- New Year decor, an annual collection
- In the box
- 4 houses with dovetails, a wick in each chimney
- What it assembles into
- A street
- Why buy again
- A new house every year
- Unit cost
- 166 / 199 / 266 / 362 UAH
- Minimum price at 40%
- 416–905 UAH
- Tooling
- 615 UAH
- Molds / parts
- 4 / 4
- Wax
- 240 g
- Sets a day from one mold set
- 4
Desk Stackestimate139–292 UAH11.6–21.5 min
- Who it is for and why
- Design buyers
- In the box
- 3 geometric blocks
- What it assembles into
- A column with swappable parts
- Why buy again
- New colors only, strong competition
- Unit cost
- 139 / 168 / 218 / 292 UAH
- Minimum price at 40%
- 347–730 UAH
- Tooling
- 572 UAH
- Molds / parts
- 3 / 3
- Wax
- 250 g
- Sets a day from one mold set
- 4
Burr Puzzleestimate145–344 UAH16.2–33 min
- Who it is for and why
- Adults, puzzle lovers; kept conditionally, not for the start
- In the box
- 6 bars 18×18 mm
- What it assembles into
- A cross lock; the wick emerges only when assembled
- Why buy again
- Weak
- Unit cost
- 145 / 177 / 251 / 344 UAH
- Minimum price at 40%
- 363–859 UAH
- Tooling
- 318 UAH
- Molds / parts
- 3 / 6
- Wax
- 180 g
- Sets a day from one mold set
- 3.3
Tooth T36: University of Dundee School of Dentistry (Sketchfab: DundeeDental), CC BY 4.0, model modified.
Rejected, and why
LEGO-style minifigures
The EU court (T-395/14, T-396/14, 2015) kept the figure shape as a trademark; the pin breaks and it sits close to a toy. The idol prototype needs checking too: a sculptor and a lawyer.
Jointed figure, train, car, robots
A toy by direct indicators; moving wax parts wear out.
Burger, cake, sushi in layers
Resemblance to food is banned; EU guidance No. 23 names such candles.
Wind turbine, mast, crane, thin struts
Parts under 4 mm do not survive demolding and assembly.
Third-party branded machines, logos, recognizable buildings
Other people’s rights.
Ball-and-stick molecule
The stick is the same breaking pin; the ball fits the small-parts cylinder.
Magnetic sets
A 6×2 mm disc has a flux of about 298 against a limit of 50, and the magnet is loose in melted wax.
Advent stack of 24 discs
A one-hour disc weighs 6.5 g and is under 4 mm thick; a solid candle with numbers does the same for less.
Keychains, badges, small parts on a fit
They fit the small-parts cylinder.
Recommendation
First: “Implant”. A low-cost test of a hypothesis, not a bet of the whole line
All calculated and estimated; no stopwatch was used.
Weak spot: the market is narrow and demand is not confirmed by anything. All we know of is 10,067 dental sole-proprietor licenses; no exact clinic count was found. A clinic may not want fire, or may find the gift odd.
Open question: a 13 mm melt pool reaches the crown socket ceiling in 0.6 h, a 6 mm pool in 2.5 h. So a wicked crown comes only after a burn test; until then it is a wickless model.
Second in line: “Halves”, after experiment 2. Third: “Stone Idols”, only with a sculptor and clarity from a lawyer. “Year by Year” has the strongest repeat purchase: survey it next.
Why not the others
| Criterion | Implant | Halves | Stone Idols |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closeness to a toy | Lowest: nobody plays with a jaw section | Low | Highest |
| Minimum price | 316–679 UAH | 262–561 UAH | 331–697 UAH |
| Buyer | A clinic, in batches | A couple, one at a time, strongly seasonal | A collector; demand has to be created |
| Show before a burn test | Yes, as a wickless model | No: the whole idea is burning | Partly |
| Lawyer | A consultation for the line | The same | Plus the box and the trademark |
| Demand test | 30 clinics, no stock | Needs a season | A showing, a silhouette test |
Kill criteria for “Implant”
Any one of these closes this version. On the left the condition, next to it where we stand; that is an estimate, not a measurement. The red tick is the kill line.
Fewer than 3 of 30 clinics pay for 10+ sets within 30 days at 690 UAH or more
Not counted, nothing to show
After 3 samples and the owner’s consent to show them
Unit cost above 40% of price: over 276 UAH at 690 UAH
Estimate 127–271 UAH: close at the upper bound
After 10 sets
Over 30 hand minutes per set
Estimate 11–21 min
Stopwatch, 10 sets
More than 1 in 10 abutments breaks within 20 assemblies
Calculation: should pass
Experiment 1
Over 10% of sets do not seat, or play is visible after 5 assemblies
Calculation: jams 0–0.13%
Experiments 1 and 4
Demolding scrap above 30%
20% assumed
30 pours
A lawyer rules the set a toy, or forbids use of the model
Not asked
Before any sale
A crown burn test is not a kill criterion for the line. If wax runs through the seam or the crown does not hold for an hour of burning, there is no wick: the set stays a model. If clients demand a wick, close this version.
What the numbers refuted
The ideas everything started from. Each fell on the numbers, though no experiment has confirmed it yet.
A thin pin will join the partsA Ø6×8 mm pin survives 5 assemblies in 34.5% of cases and 20 assemblies in 1.4%. A Ø14×6 mm boss: 99.4% over 20 assemblies.
A press fit will hold a partParaffin creep removes the fit in about 1.1 h at 22 °C. A part stays by its own weight and travels only disassembled.
A magnet will solve the seatPull-off is at most 1.2 N, the flux is 6 times over the limit, and in a melt pool the magnet is loose.
A burned stack can be taken apartA 0.1 mm gap fills in 0.2 s over 5 mm. If the pool reaches the seam the parts will probably fuse. This is an order of magnitude: there was no burn test.
A “not a toy” label settles itEU guidance No. 20: foreseeable use outweighs stated use. A set of few parts without glue is a toy indicator. The line’s main risk is not choking but this classification.
Hundreds of parts make a series100 designs need 8,646 parts a year at 1,000 UAH per design, 300 designs 31,413. Up to 18 first.
We will make it by 15 DecemberNo: the base has not been cast, and the clinic sales cycle plus 30 days of showing do not fit.
Work for the owner’s hands
The order holds: none of this gets cast or printed until the base in the glove mold is cast and the owner reports the result.
Cast the base in the glove mold and report the result
Everything below waits for this. The line does not depend on glove demolding risk: a failed base does not kill it, but the order does not change.
Experiment 2: the seam in fire
Two discs from any pillar candle, cut with a hot wire, no tooling. Seam 10 and 20 mm from the top, 3 times for an hour on a non-combustible stand. Answer: does the seam run, does it fuse, does the top part come off.
Experiments 1 and 3: break bosses, warm a pair
One mold: bosses Ø8, 10, 12, 14, 5 of each, with sockets, about 80 g of silicone, roughly 50 UAH plus printing the master. Kitchen scale, caliper. Then an S14 pair at 35 °C for a day under weight.
Lawyer on the line and use of the model; the label
One consultation for the whole line, the same for all concepts.
“Implant” molds, 10 sets with a stopwatch, experiment 4
The stopwatch replaces the hand-minute estimate. Three pours with a socket core: cracks and shrinkage.
Decide who gets to see it
Without the owner’s word nobody receives anything.
What is not proven here
- This page is a concept for the owner and an investor. It sells nothing, collects no requests or data, and promises no dates or returns.
- The Zipf distribution, the 60 UAH profit per part, the 500–2,000 UAH design cost and the 20% scrap are assumed, not measured.
- Concepts marked “estimate” were not built; on prototypes the mold formula overstates by up to 25%.
- The market has not been tested by talking to anyone. Nothing has been sent to anyone.